Thursday night’s Fiesta Bowl sees No. 10 Miami face No. 6 Ole Miss, drawing major betting attention with a national championship berth at stake.
Both teams won quarterfinal upsets: Miami beat Ohio State 24–14, while Ole Miss edged Georgia 39–34.
College football betting sites have posted one of the tightest semifinal lines in recent CFP history. According to multiple sites, Miami opened as a small favorite, with spreads around -3.5 and totals from 51.5 to 52.5 points, depending on the book.
The moneyline reinforces the matchup’s outlook, making Ole Miss a modest underdog while positioning Miami as the favorite after its dominant defensive performance.
Miami Florida (#10) vs. Mississippi (#6)*
- Spread: Miami, Florida: -3.5 (-105), Mississippi: +3.5 (-115)
- Win: Miami, Florida: -175, Mississippi: +150
- Total: Over 52.5 (EVEN), Under 52.5 (-120)
Why Bettors Are Split
Bettors are split on the matchup because both teams showcase clear strengths that carried them to this stage. Miami enters as the favorite, driven by a dominant defense, but Ole Miss has shown it can perform under pressure.
- Miami’s pass rush overwhelmed Ohio State, holding the defending champions to 14 points.
- Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor lead a front seven that defines the Hurricanes’ postseason run.
- Miami is 4–0 against ranked opponents this season and is riding a six‑game winning streak.
- Ole Miss Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss delivered a season‑defining second half against Georgia, throwing for 362 yards and two touchdowns in the comeback win.
- Despite Lane Kiffin’s departure, Ole Miss keeps winning with an explosive offense and clutch execution.
- The Rebels have already set a school record with 13 wins.
Oddsmakers are weighing Miami’s defensive surge against Ole Miss’s offensive firepower, resulting in a line that has seen steady two-way action throughout the week.
Betting On The CFP
If you plan to bet on the College Football Playoffs, consider that both Ole Miss and Miami are playing like they have nothing to lose. Most football betting sites list Miami as the favorite, but many fans still view the matchup as a true toss‑up.
We suggest only wagering what you can afford to lose, as one turnover or a missed field goal could decide this close matchup. You can also shop live odds during the event if you do not want to bet on the game line. There are also many prop odds offering good value at the popular 18-and-up gambling sites we review and recommend.
What’s at Stake
The winner advances to the national championship in Miami to face the winner of Friday’s Oregon–Indiana semifinal. For Miami, it is a chance to revive the program’s national title pedigree. For Ole Miss, it is an opportunity to complete the most successful season in school history.
How to watch the Fiesta Bowl: Miami vs. Ole Miss
You can watch the Fiesta Bowl semifinal between Miami and Ole Miss on Thursday, Jan. 8, with full national coverage on ESPN. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, and fans can stream the matchup through the ESPN app or any live‑TV streaming service that includes ESPN, such as YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV, Sling Orange, or Fubo.
*Odds via Bovada